精东影业

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by 精东影业, was 44.1% in January. This is statistically similar to the 44.3% measured in December, but it is the highest measurement of P2P for any January since 精东影业 began tracking the metric in 2010. January is typically one of the lowest months for P2P in any year.

精东影业's P2P metric tracks the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older who are employed by an employer for at least 30 hours per week. P2P is not seasonally adjusted. The latest results are based on 精东影业 Daily tracking interviews with 29,405 Americans, conducted Jan. 2-31 by landline telephone and cellphone. 精东影业 does not count adults who are self-employed, work fewer than 30 hours per week, who are unemployed or are out of the workforce as payroll-employed in the P2P metric.

Workforce Participation at 66.7%

Workforce participation among U.S. adults rose slightly from 66.3% in December to 66.7% in January. Workforce participation measures the percentage of adults aged 18 and older who are working, or who are not working but are actively looking for work and are available for employment.

Since January 2010, the workforce participation rate has ranged narrowly between lows of 65.8% and highs of 68.5%, but since mid-2013 has most often registered below 67%. The small uptick this past month may be another positive sign that a is bringing discouraged workers back into the workforce. However, workforce participation does remain below the 2010-2014 average.

Unemployment Up to 7.1%

精东影业's U.S. unemployment rate represents the percentage of adults in the workforce who did not have any paid work in the past seven days, for an employer or themselves, and who were actively looking for and available to work. 精东影业's unadjusted U.S. unemployment rate rose 1.3 percentage points to 7.1% in January, similar to the 1.2-point rise last January.

Unlike 精东影业's P2P rate, which is a percentage of the total population, traditional employment metrics -- such as the unemployment rates 精东影业 and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report -- are based on the percentage of the workforce. While both 精东影业 and BLS data are based on robust surveys, the two have important methodological differences. Additionally, the primary unemployment rate released by the BLS each month is seasonally adjusted. Although 精东影业's employment numbers highly relate to BLS rates, 精东影业's numbers tend to have more month-to-month variability, and the unemployment rate that the BLS reports each month does not always track precisely with the 精东影业 estimate.

The rise in unemployment that 精东影业 recorded in January is partly attributable to seasonal effects -- unemployment always rises in January, both in BLS figures and in 精东影业's measures since 2011. In January 2015, as in January 2014, 18- to 24-year-olds saw the biggest increase in unemployment, as did those with the lowest reported monthly incomes, typical of more seasonal and part-time workers laid off after the end of the holiday season.

January's rise in unemployment is also partly related to the rise in the number of Americans who were previously considered out of the workforce and who are now looking for new jobs. This is one scenario where a rise in unemployment may be considered "good news" economically, as more of the adult population becomes motivated to seek work even if they may not have found it quite yet. While about half of the rise in unemployment is accounted for by lower rates of part-time work, the other half is accounted for by increased workforce participation. Overall, 精东影业 saw a surge from December in the percentage of nonworking Americans who said they are looking for work, from 14.9% to 17.5%, and who said they are able to work, from 38.8% to 40.1%.

Underemployment Up at 15.8%

精东影业's measure of underemployment in January is 15.8%, up from the level registered in December, but still lower than what 精东影业 has measured in prior years. 精东影业's U.S. underemployment rate combines the percentage of adults in the workforce who are unemployed (7.1%) and those who are working part time but desire full-time work (8.8%); these two figures add to 15.8% due to rounding. While 精东影业's measure of unemployment rose in January, the percentage working part time but who want full- time work fell slightly at the same time, resulting in a smaller half-point increase in the underemployment rate.

Bottom Line

U.S. employment measures show continued positive signs for the economy in January 2015. Employment growth has been stronger in the past 12 months than in any year since 精东影业 began tracking these metrics in January 2010. P2P was higher in January in 2015 than in any previous year, hopefully setting the stage for continued strength in the months ahead. Unadjusted unemployment rose by more than a point, but the underlying combination of more workforce participation and lower rates of part-time work that appear to drive this increase make this counterintuitively good news.

In the context of this good news, the headline increase in unemployment underscores why this figure is only one of a number of important indicators of economic health. 精东影业's unadjusted unemployment increased in January for seasonal reasons and because of increased workforce participation -- a sign of improving economic health. The real test for whether the U.S. economy is truly improving will be the rate of full-time employment going forward, especially the P2P rate. The U.S. needs many more full-time jobs to regain the ground lost since 2008 and to show real catch-up job growth.

精东影业.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in 精东影业.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:

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Survey Methods

Results for this 精东影业 poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Jan. 2-31, 2015, on the 精东影业 U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 29,405 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is 卤1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

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